![]() ![]() In East African countries, climate change has already affected weather patterns and hydrological cycles. This could affect all dimensions of food security and exacerbate malnutrition. Agriculture production and access to food in many African countries will be severely impacted. Moreover, extreme weather and climate events are projected to damage many socioeconomic sectors such as water, health, transport, agriculture, and food security in different regions of the globe, particularly in developing countries ( Sarker et al., 2012 IPCC, 2013 Curtis et al., 2017).įor instance, it is projected that due to climate change, millions of people in Africa are likely to face increased water stress ( IPCC, 2013), and in some African countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could decline ( FAO, 2017 Benjamin et al., 2020). These events have damaged residential, commercial, and government/municipal buildings and caused destruction of material assets within the building and destruction of public infrastructures (roads and bridges) ( NCEI, 2017). ![]() The projections for the future from the climate models indicate further increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events that relate to temperature and rainfall ( Kundzewicz, 2016). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports indicate that it is very likely that climate change has influenced the increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events ( IPCC, 2007, 2013). It is, therefore, recommended that appropriate planning and effective adaptation policies are in place for disaster risk prevention. These results indicate that in future climate condition, socioeconomic livelihoods of people in the Kagera and Geita regions are likely to experience significant challenges from climate-related stresses. The number of consecutive wet days, the intensity of very wet days, and the number of extreme wet days are likely to increase. The frequency of cold events (cold days and cold nights) is likely to decrease, while the frequency of warm events (warm days and warm nights) is likely to increase significantly. However, in future climate condition (2011–2100) under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, the Lake Victoria region is likely to experience increased temperatures and rainfall. The numbers of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) during the historical climate have increased, while the numbers of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) have decreased significantly. The annual minimum and maximum temperatures in the Kagera and Geita regions have increased by 0.54–0.69☌, and 0.51–0.69☌, respectively. Results show that during historical (1971–2000) climate, the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania experienced a statistically significant increasing trend in temperature. The existence, magnitude, and statistical significance of potential trends in climate data time series are estimated using the Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and Theil-SEN slope estimator methods. Extreme climate event, rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures time series during historical (1971–2000) climate condition are compared to future climate projection (2011–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. We use daily simulated climate variables (rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Program Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs) for the analysis. In this paper, we present an analysis of climate change and extreme climate events in the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania, focusing on the Kagera and Geita regions. The understanding of climate change impacts and the associated climate extreme events at regional and local scales is of critical importance for planning and development of feasible adaptation strategies. 2Department of Geography and Economics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.1Department of Knowledge Management, Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.Philbert Modest Luhunga 1 * and Alexander Elias Songoro 2 ![]()
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